最近交易日 2026年06月10日
汼汼
2026-06-102026-06-082026-06-052026-03-30

SH · 豆粕

AI 8 维度量化分析 · 核心简报
日期 2026-03-30 生成 2026-06-11 17:09
01

早盘聚焦

01

行情描述

The user wants me to write a professional market commentary for soybean meal futures on 2026-03-30, based strictly on the provided real data. Let me analyze the data carefully:

Day session data:
- Open: 2449.0 yuan
- Close: 2353.0 yuan
- High: 2449.0 yuan
- Low: 2325.0 yuan
- Change: -89.0 yuan
- Change %: -3.64%

Night session data:
- All N/A

Key observations:
1. Day session: Opened at 2449.0 (which is also the high), dropped to a low of 2325.0, closed at 2353.0
2. The price movement: Open = High = 2449.0, meaning it opened at the high and dropped throughout the day
3. The range was 2449.0 - 2325.0 = 124 yuan
4. Close (2353.0) is closer to the low (2325.0) than to the high (2449.0), showing bearish strength
5. This is a large bearish candle - significant drop of 89 yuan (-3.64%)
6. Night session data is N/A, so I should mention this is unavailable

Technical pattern:
- Opened at the high and closed near the low → "长阴线" (long bearish candle) or "光头光脚阴线" (close to it - opened at high but didn't close at low)
- Actually, open = high, so it's a "光脚阴线"... wait no. If open = high, then there's no upper shadow, and close is not at low so there's a lower shadow. This would be called something like "上影线为零的下行阴线" or simply a strong bearish candle.

Let me write a 160-200 character professional description:

Key points to cover:
1. Day session: Open 2449 → high 2449 → low 2325 → close 2353
2. Night session: N/A - data unavailable
3. Technical pattern: Long bearish candle, opened at high
4. Key levels: Support at 2325, resistance at 2449
5. Market sentiment: Bearish dominance

Let me draft:

豆粕期货日盘承压走弱,开盘报2449.0元后即触及全日高点,随即遭遇明显抛压,价格单边下行,盘中最低下探至2325.0元,尾盘略有企稳,最终收于2353.0元,日内跌幅达89.0元,跌幅3.64%。K线形态呈现光脚阴线特征,开盘价即最高价,显示多头无力上攻,空头主导盘面。从高低点来看,上方2449.0元构成短期压力位,下方2325

03

八大维度分析

01

技术面

日盘重挫3.64%,盘中最低2325元/吨,跌破近期盘整区间下沿,K线收大阴线并伴随124元/吨振幅,技术形态由震荡转弱,短线有惯性下行风险,下方关注2300元/吨整数关口支撑,上方2450元/吨转为强压力区。

02

基本面

180日平均基差率7.63%,90日降至3.52%[1],基差快速收敛反映现货跟跌乏力,期现回归压力加大;3月国产大豆拍卖启动[5],市场供给宽松预期增强,现货端走弱直接拖累期价。

03

资金面

SH2605合约多头51,401手(+1,785),空头58,812手(+4,046),净持仓-7,411手[1],空头增仓幅度为多头2.3倍;永安(-3574)、中信(-3331)、创元(-2711)居空头前列[1],主力机构空头布局明确,资金面呈显著偏空格局。

04

产业链

上游大豆拍卖增量施压原料端,豆粕产出预期增加;下游养殖端需求恢复缓慢,油厂压榨利润承压,粕价跟随成本端回落,产业链整体处于成本与需求双弱格局。

05

政策面

3月国产大豆拍卖政策落地[5],拍卖底价与频次对市场供给形成直接冲击,临储释放节奏成为短线定价核心变量,政策面利空效应持续兑现。

06

进出口

外盘CBOT大豆资金离场出现回调[5],美豆走势转弱削弱进口成本端支撑,叠加南美大豆丰产预期,进口端对国内粕价的成本驱动减弱。

07

市场情绪

新闻舆情普遍看空,拍卖+外盘回调共振放大市场恐慌[5],成交活跃但持仓净流出明显,情绪面处于阶段性悲观区间。

08

风险因素

拍卖投放节奏、南美天气变化、油厂开机率、下游饲料消费恢复进度及CBOT反弹修复。

04

持仓龙虎榜

SH2605.ZCE
多头
51,401
+1,785
空头
58,812
+4,046
净持仓
-7,411
看空

净多头前 5

期货公司
徽商期货(代客)2,6970+2,697
中信建投(代客)2,4930+2,493
国联期货(代客)2,3800+2,380
南华期货(代客)1,9170+1,917
银河期货(代客)3,7752,032+1,743

净空头前 5

期货公司
永安期货(代客)1,5945,168-3,574
中信期货(代客)4,2537,584-3,331
创元期货(代客)1,5204,231-2,711
平安期货(代客)02,572-2,572
国泰君安(代客)6,1468,366-2,220